Why Skilled Workers in the US Are Choosing Canada in 2026

The H-1B system is cracking. Express Entry is not a lottery. Here is why the math is changing — and what it means for your move.

By Sawubona Canada Immigration Inc. · Published July 9, 2026

Topics: H-1B visa Canada alternative 2026 · move from US to Canada 2026 · Express Entry for Indian tech workers · Canada PR for software engineers · H-1B uncertainty Canada immigration · skilled worker immigration Canada · US to Canada move 2026 · Canada vs USA immigration · RCIC Mississauga · Sawubona Canada

Rajan has been in the United States for eleven years. He arrived on an F-1 student visa, transitioned to OPT, survived two H-1B lotteries, and has been building his career in cloud infrastructure ever since. He earns well. He contributes deeply to his company. He has a daughter who goes to school in New Jersey and a wife who gave up a career of her own to keep the family's visa status clean. And he has spent the last eighteen months watching the legal foundation of his American life wobble.

He is not unusual. He is, depending on where you sit, either a cautionary tale or an opportunity — and thousands of skilled workers in the United States are right now doing the same calculation Rajan is doing. The number is not abstract: H-1B registrations for fiscal year 2027 fell 38.5 percent from the year before. People have not stopped wanting to work in America. They have started seriously wondering whether America's immigration system will let them.

Canada is the answer a growing number of them are landing on. This blog explains why — in plain numbers, direct comparison, and the concrete steps available to someone in exactly this position right now.

Key Stats

• 38.5%: DROP IN H-1B REGISTRATIONS FY2027
• 80,000+: INDIAN H-1B HOLDERS LOST US TECH JOBS 2022–2024
• 65%: EMPLOYERS LOST FOREIGN WORKERS TO VISA ISSUES
• $100,000: H-1B FEE — STRUCK DOWN, REINSTATED, UNDER APPEAL

THE PROBLEM

What Is Actually Happening to the H-1B System Right Now

A timeline of the policy chaos that changed the calculation for hundreds of thousands of skilled workers

The H-1B was never easy. It has always involved a lottery — a system in which your visa approval depends not on your skills, not on your employer's need, not on your years of investment in American education and experience, but on whether a random number falls in your favour. In recent years, approval rates hovered around 20 to 30 percent. Most applicants failed. Most tried again.

In September 2025, the Trump administration added a new layer: a $100,000 supplemental fee on new H-1B petitions requiring consular processing. The impact was immediate. H-1B lottery registrations dropped 27 percent in the 2026 cycle alone. Small and mid-sized tech companies — the ones that are actually the engine of American innovation — simply exited the program. A $100,000 fee is manageable for Google or Amazon. It is a company-killer for a 30-person startup.

On June 8, 2026, a federal judge struck the fee down, ruling it was effectively a tax that only Congress has authority to impose. By June 12, the same court had reinstated a stay while the government appealed. The fee was back. As of the date of this publication, the $100,000 H-1B fee is being collected again while the First Circuit Court of Appeals considers the case. The outcome could reach the Supreme Court before it is resolved.

The ruling that was supposed to bring relief instead became one more reminder that the rules governing skilled workers' lives in America can change — in either direction — faster than a case can close.

The fee is only the most visible symptom. The underlying condition is what immigration experts are calling psychological fatigue — a deep, accumulated exhaustion with a system in which years of careful planning, impeccable documentation, and excellent performance can be undone by a presidential proclamation on a Friday afternoon. Danielle Goldman, co-founder of immigration advisory Build Talent Labs, put it plainly: global talent does not wait for the US to get its policy house in order.

Between 2022 and 2024, over 80,000 Indian H-1B holders lost their US tech jobs and faced a 60-day countdown to leave the country. Each one had to choose: scramble for another sponsor in two months, or leave. Many left. Many are now looking at where to go instead. Canada is the answer that keeps coming back.

"Think of it like a massive game of musical chairs. Top talent is looking for a place to sit — and America just removed many of their options." — Martin Basiri, CEO of Passage, Toronto — CBC News, 2026

THE DIFFERENCE

H-1B vs Express Entry — The Comparison That Matters

Why the Canadian system is structurally different, not just geographically different

When people ask why skilled workers in the US are choosing Canada, the honest answer is not that Canada is perfect. It is that Canada is predictable. And predictability, after a decade of H-1B chaos, is worth more than most people realise until they have lost it.

Here is the comparison that matters — not country against country, but system against system.

THE SINGLE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE In the US, your employer sponsors your Green Card. They control the timeline. They own the process. If you quit or get fired, you lose your place in line and start over. In Canada, you accumulate CRS points based on your own profile — age, education, work experience, language. Your employer can help by providing a job offer, which adds points, or by nominating you through a Provincial Nominee Program. But once you get PR, it is yours. Your status does not live at your employer's address.

THE NUMBERS

What Canada Is Actually Offering Right Now

Express Entry draws, category pathways, and the specific lanes open for US-based tech and STEM workers

Canada is not offering a consolation prize for people who could not make it in America. It is running one of the most aggressive skilled worker intake programs in the world — and in 2026, it is specifically structured around the exact professions that the H-1B chaos is displacing.

The 2026 Immigration Levels Plan commits to 380,000 permanent residents. Economic immigration — the class that includes Express Entry and the Provincial Nominee Programs — will account for 64 percent of all admissions by 2027, the highest proportion in decades. That is not a coincidence. It is policy deliberately designed to fill a labour market gap that Canada cannot close through birth rates alone.

What Express Entry looks like for a US-based STEM worker If you are a software engineer, data scientist, systems architect, AI researcher, or any STEM professional with a Bachelor's degree or higher, you likely have enough to score in the competitive range for the Canadian Experience Class or a category-based STEM draw. The calculation is specific to your profile — age, education level, language scores, years of work experience — but here is what the landscape looks like this year.

Category-based Express Entry draws for STEM, healthcare, and trades occupations ran throughout 2024 and early 2025. Canada has committed to returning to these in 2026, and the June 25, 2026 healthcare draw of 4,000 invitations at CRS 475 — 40 points below the same week's Canadian Experience Class draw — demonstrates exactly how category-based draws create lower entry points for in-demand professions. For a STEM worker with strong credentials, the category-based pathway is the most likely route to a competitive invitation.

If you are already working in Canada on an open work permit — including the H-1B stream permit that Canada issued in 2023 and which filled 10,000 spots in under 48 hours — one year of Canadian work experience in a TEER 0, 1, or 2 occupation qualifies you for the Canadian Experience Class. That single year is typically the most efficient CRS point accelerator available, because Canadian work experience adds up to 80 CRS points depending on your profile.

What the Provincial Nominee Program offers British Columbia and Ontario both run technology-focused provincial immigration streams. A provincial nomination adds 600 points to your CRS score, which effectively guarantees an Express Entry invitation at the next draw. BC's Tech Pilot has been one of the most active employer-driven pathways for tech workers in North America. Ontario's newly launched Workforce Priority stream covers all TEER 0–3 occupations — including every major STEM role — and requires only a full-time, permanent Ontario job offer plus CLB 6 language ability to qualify.

For a US-based tech professional with an Ontario or BC employer willing to make a qualifying offer, the PNP route can move faster than waiting for a federal Express Entry draw — and it removes the CRS score uncertainty entirely.

"Smaller and medium-sized businesses that cannot afford the $100,000 H-1B fee are opening offices in Canada instead — keeping workers in North American time zones while facing far less expense and paperwork." — Andres Pelenur, immigration lawyer, Borders Law Firm — CBC News

WHO THIS IS FOR

Five Profiles of People This Blog Is Written For

If you recognise yourself in one of these, read this section carefully

01 | The H-1B lottery survivor — waiting for a Green Card that may never come You have your H-1B. You are employed, performing well, and your employer is sponsoring your Green Card. But your priority date has not moved in four years. You are Indian-born, which means the per-country cap places you in a backlog estimated at 50 to 140+ years. You are 34 years old. The math is not working. Canada's Express Entry has no country cap. Your CRS score is calculated the same way regardless of your nationality. A profile assessment will show you exactly where you stand today.

02 | The H-1B holder who just lost their job — and has 60 days Your company had layoffs. Your H-1B status gives you 60 days to find a new employer willing to sponsor you, file a transfer petition, and keep you in status. The 60-day clock does not care that you have been in this country for eight years, that your kids are in school, that your spouse has an H-4. Canada does not have a 60-day rule. With a Canadian open work permit, you can take the time to find the right role, not just the fastest one.

03 | The STEM graduate on OPT — watching the H-1B odds and doing the math You graduated from a US university in computer science or engineering. You have a job on OPT. You need to win an H-1B lottery by April. Your odds are roughly one in four. If you lose, you have options — STEM OPT extension, a second lottery attempt — but the runway is finite. Canada's CRS system does not work on odds. It works on points. A strong GRE score, an excellent GPA, a recognized Canadian ECA for your degree, and an IELTS score of 8+ could put you in a very competitive CRS range. That is something you can build toward rather than something you roll the dice on.

04 | The tech professional in India — who chose the US dream but is now watching from the sidelines You chose to prepare for US immigration. You studied in India, passed the IELTS, did your ECA assessment, built your career at a company with US offices. The H-1B lottery rejected you twice. The $100,000 fee has now priced your employer out of the program. Your US plan is on hold indefinitely. Canada's CRS pool is competitive, but it is open right now. A profile evaluation today tells you your exact score and what it would take to receive an invitation.

05 | The H-4 spouse whose work authorization is under political threat Your spouse is on H-1B. You came on an H-4. The H-4 EAD — the work authorization that has allowed you to build your own career — has been politically contested for years. It exists today. It may not tomorrow. In Canada, the spouse of an Express Entry applicant receives an open work permit that is not tied to any employer and is not subject to political reversal. Your career is not a concession to your partner's visa. It is a right.

THE HONEST PICTURE

What Canada Is Not — And Why That Matters

A fair-minded look at the real trade-offs

This blog would not be honest if it did not acknowledge the other side of the ledger. Canada has real trade-offs that every US-based professional should understand before deciding to move.

Salaries are lower. Research from The Dais found that US tech workers earn approximately 46 percent more than Canadian tech workers after accounting for purchasing power — a gap of roughly $40,000 annually for comparable roles. The highest marginal tax rates in Ontario kick in at income levels far lower than in most US states, amplifying the after-tax gap for high earners. For a Google engineer in Mountain View, the financial comparison with Toronto is not flattering.

Cost of living in Vancouver and Toronto is high. Housing affordability has improved from its 2023 peak but remains genuinely challenging. Childcare, while publicly funded more extensively than in the US, varies significantly by province and wait list. And Canada has its own retention problem: immigrants with doctorates leave at twice the rate of those without graduate degrees, often headed for the same US market they left.

The honest case for Canada is not that it is better than America in every dimension. It is that it offers something the H-1B system fundamentally cannot: security of status. The ability to change jobs without losing your immigration standing. The ability to build a life — a mortgage, a school community, a career decision made on its own merits — without the background hum of deportation risk that H-1B holders describe as living with a thread tied around their future.

For people who want to choose where they live, rather than have their employer choose for them, that security is worth something real. The question is whether it is worth the salary delta. That is a personal calculation. But it is a calculation that is worth making with accurate information in hand.

"For most Indian tech professionals, a US tech job had always been a dream. It was not just about the paycheck — it was a pathway to overall success. Now that dream no longer exists, or has diminished." — Neeti Sharma, CEO, TeamLease Digital — Rest of World, July 2026

NEXT STEPS

What to Do If You Are Considering This Move

The specific actions available to you right now, depending on your situation

If you are a skilled worker in the US — whether you are currently on an H-1B, on OPT, or working without documentation certainty — the single most useful thing you can do in the next 30 days is understand your CRS score and what it takes to receive an Express Entry invitation.

That means getting your credentials assessed through a Designated Credential Assessment body — WES (World Education Services) is the most widely used for academic qualifications. It means taking or retaking your IELTS, CELPIP, or TEF Canada language test to get the highest possible score, because language is the fastest CRS point driver available. And it means building a profile in the Express Entry system and tracking where draws have been clearing.

If you have a connection to a Canadian employer — through your current company's Canadian offices, through your professional network, or through active outreach — a job offer letter from a qualified Canadian employer can add between 50 and 200 CRS points depending on whether a Labour Market Impact Assessment is obtained. Combined with a strong base CRS score, that addition can be the difference between watching draws pass and receiving an invitation.

If you are in Canada already on an open work permit — including those who came through the H-1B stream in 2023 — one year of continuous Canadian work experience in a TEER 0, 1, or 2 occupation qualifies you for the Canadian Experience Class, which runs draws multiple times per month. Time spent working in Canada is not waiting time. It is building your CRS score.

ONE THING MOST PEOPLE GET WRONG Many US-based professionals assume they need to move to Canada before they can start an Express Entry profile. They do not. You can create an Express Entry profile from inside the United States and receive an invitation to apply from abroad. You do not need to quit your job or leave your current city to begin the process. The profile is live the moment it is submitted, and you are ranked against the pool from that moment forward.

How Sawubona Canada Helps US-Based Skilled Workers

At Sawubona Canada Immigration Inc., led by Vishal Kapoor, RCIC (#R707177), we work with skilled professionals navigating this decision every week. We have clients who came from Silicon Valley. We have clients who were in the H-1B backlog for a decade before choosing Canada. We have clients who started their profile while still in the US and received their invitation within six months.

What we offer is not a template or a questionnaire. It is a RCIC-led assessment of your specific profile — your occupation, your credentials, your language scores, your work history, your family composition — mapped against the exact pathways available in Canada right now. We identify the fastest route to an invitation, the gaps worth closing before you apply, and the employer and provincial options worth pursuing.

We operate in Canada, India, South Africa, and the Middle East — and we serve clients wherever they are in the world. You do not need to be in Canada to start the conversation.

Sawubona. We see you. And we know exactly where you stand.

If you are currently on an H-1B visa in the US, on OPT, or working in a STEM role and watching American immigration policy with growing unease — this is the conversation worth having before you are forced to have it. Our RCIC-licensed team will map your specific profile against the Canadian pathways available to you right now and give you a clear picture of what your move to Canada would actually look like.

Book a free profile evaluation today.

+1 647-558-9000 | info@sawubonacanada.com | sawubonacanada.com/book-consultation Vishal Kapoor, RCIC · RCIC #R707177 · Mississauga, Ontario · Canada · India · South Africa · Middle East

Sources and references: Rest of World, 'H-1B visa chaos: Tech talent flees U.S. for Canada & UAE,' July 2026. Brown Immigration Law, 'Immigration News — June 2026,' June 30, 2026. Ellis & Associates, 'H-1B $100K Fee Reinstated,' June 2026. CBC News, 'The new, steep price for this U.S. visa could be a blessing for Canadian tech,' September 2025. TD Economics / BNN Bloomberg, 'Canada's Silent Brain Drain,' May 2026. The Hub, 'Canada's brain drain is only half the story,' April 2026. Hashtag Investing, 'Canada Faces Fresh Brain Drain,' May 2026. City Journal, 'A Steep Exit Tax Won't Solve Canada's Brain Drain,' July 2026. IRCC 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan. WorkVisa Guide, Global Skills Migration Map 2026. Moving2Canada, 'The $100,000 H-1B Fee — How Canada Can Benefit,' December 2025. Amir Ismail Immigration, 'Canada H-1B Alternative 2026,' January 2026. EduConnectUSA, 'The H-1B 2026: The $100,000 Fee and H-1B Lottery Explained,' June 2026. Niskanen Center, 'The global race for talent,' November 2025. All data verified as of July 9, 2026. This blog is general information only and does not constitute legal advice. Immigration rules are subject to change. Consult a Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant for guidance specific to your situation.